Kimi K3.1 Pro、新たなサイバー現実、そして Muse をめぐる雑談

Podcast: Kimi K3.1 Pro, the new cyber reality, and Muse musings

Interconnects46分
Kimi K3.1 Pro、新たなサイバー現実、そして Muse をめぐる雑談

Kimi K3.1 Pro、新たなサイバー現実、そして Muse をめぐる雑談

Interconnects

0:0046:42

要約

Nathan Lambert と Florian Brand が、ベンチマークの数字と評判が割れた Kimi K3.1 Pro、PHP の脆弱性や LiteLLM 侵害に見るサイバー情勢、オープンウェイトモデルのリスク論を議論した。サイバーの専門家と AI 界隈の見方の違い、クローズドモデルの信頼アクセス制度や Anthropic の新卒採用方針にも触れ、最後に Florian が Muse の使用体験を語る。

この回のポイント

  • ●Kimi K3.1 Pro は Artificial Analysis で上位に入る一方、Terminal Bench Science や Program Bench など長期・探索型の評価では弱く、実利用の評判は割れていると二人は述べている。
  • ●約3兆パラメータで B300 級が必要となり、Flash 系の小型モデルより運用負担が重い点が、採用への懸念として挙げられた。
  • ●Kimi は攻撃的サイバー能力を意図的に抑えた「オープンウェイト原則」を掲げ、Florian はこれを責任ある立場取りとして好意的に評価した。
  • ●PHP の脆弱性では、公開後も大規模な悪用は確認されていないという報告があり、LiteLLM の再侵害は GitHub に5か月残った API キーが原因と説明された。二人は問題の本質を開閉の別よりエコシステムとコード量の増加と見ている。
  • ●OpenAI などの信頼アクセスプログラムが広がったことで、防御目的の利用者がクローズドモデルを使いやすくなったと評価した。一方で、abliterated(安全制限除去)モデルを API 提供する事業者には批判的だった。
  • ●Anthropic が新卒・ジュニアを採用しない方針について、Nathan は安全文化の赤信号とし、Florian は他社には好機と見ている。

章立て

  1. Kimi K3.1 Pro への反応

    ベンチマーク上位と評判のばらつき、ステルス的な宣伝疑惑、発表手法の変化、3兆パラメータ級の運用負担を議論する。

  2. Kimi のオープンウェイト原則

    攻撃的サイバー能力を意図的に抑えた Kimi の方針が、防御側の利益と責任ある立場取りの観点から評価される。

  3. 何でもハックできる時代

    Mythos 以降のサイバー議論、AI 安全コミュニティの発信への疑問、サイバー専門家と AI 界隈の見方の違いを話す。

  4. PHP と LiteLLM の事例

    PHP のリモートコード実行脆弱性と LiteLLM の再侵害を例に、大規模悪用が起きていない現状とコード増加による将来リスクを論じる。

  5. abliterated API と信頼アクセス

    Nathan は、オープンウェイト Mythos は問題なかったとする自説を再検討し、abliterated モデルの API 提供や信頼アクセス制度の効果、ガードレールの実効性を話す。

  6. Anthropic のジュニア採用方針

    Anthropic の採用方針を巡り、安全文化や将来の雇用問題への影響、他社にとっての機会を議論する。

  7. Florian の Muse 体験

    Muse の先回り通知、買い物代行、メモリ移行、遅さや運用上の課題などを語る。

  8. まとめ

    今後数週間はオープンモデルの公開と脆弱性開示が続くと予想し、二人が締めくくる。

解説記事

Interconnects の Nathan Lambert と評価担当の Florian Brand が、AI 業界の慌ただしい一週間を振り返った回である。話題は Kimi K3.1 Pro の評判、PHP や LiteLLM をめぐるサイバー情勢、オープンウェイトモデルのリスク論、Anthropic の採用方針、そして Florian が使い込む個人向けエージェント Muse に及んだ。

Kimi K3.1 Pro は評価が割れた

Kimi K3.1 Pro は Artificial Analysis のランキングで上位に入り、Nathan は「totally crazy」と評するほどの数字を出した。一方、Kimi 自身のブログに載る長期タスク系の指標、例えば Terminal Bench Science では GPT-6 Astra に約20ポイント差をつけられていると指摘している。Program Bench も同様に弱い例として挙がった。

Florian は、Artificial Analysis の評価は比較的短い時間軸であるのに対し、Program Bench は長く探索的だと説明する。強化学習(RL)による学習が「目的が明確なタスク」に偏っていることが、差の一因ではないかという見方を示した。Nathan も、前作 K3 と比べ、大きなモデルなのにポストトレーニングが未完成に感じるという声や、少し RL に偏りすぎているのではという印象に触れている。

実用面では、約3兆パラメータのモデルは B300 が必要で、1ノード1レプリカになるなど運用が重い、と Florian は述べる。H200 に載るような小型の Flash 系モデルのほうが既存 GPU を活用しやすい。Nathan は、Kimi の命名変更を Flash 系リリースの布石かもしれないと推測している。また、今回の発表では報酬付きの宣伝が開示されなかったとの疑惑が出たが、Nathan は、画面キャプチャ1件以外に裏付けはないとしたうえで、どの企業であってもやるべきでないと述べた。

Kimi のオープンウェイト原則

Kimi は、絶対的なフロンティアを押し上げるような攻撃的サイバー能力のオープンウェイトは公開しないと表明している。報告されているところでは、ミッドトレーニングのデータ段階で当該能力を下げているという。Florian は、この方針を好意的に評価した。広く公開して防御側がバグを見つけて直せるメリットが大きく、組織全体を侵害するような攻撃には長期の持続的な能力が必要で、そこはクローズドモデルが圧倒的に強いからだという。能力を意図的に抑えることは、「Mythos 級のオープンモデルが出れば世界が終わる」という恐怖論に対する責任ある立場取りにもなるとした。

サイバー専門家と AI 界隈の温度差

Nathan は、サイバーの専門家は脆弱性の検出から悪用までの時間などを生態系全体の指標として見ており、ChatGPT 登場前から指数関数的な傾向があり、AI の登場で段差が生じたわけではないと受け止めていると述べる。一方、AI 界隈はオープンかクローズドか、Mythos かといった論争になりがちだという。また、Mythos 発表時の発信が「サイバー兵器」の印象を強め、AI 安全コミュニティの「オオカミ少年」的な振る舞いにつながったと批判した。ただし脆弱性が大量に見つかっていること自体は、不穏だと認めている。

ランサムウェアなどのサイバー被害額のうち AI に帰属される割合は、これまで非常に低かったと Nathan は言う。Joshua Saxe の議論を引き、攻撃者のサプライチェーンは弱く、大規模な物理的被害を起こそうとする人も少ないのではないかと述べた。国家主体は別の能力を持つため、オープンモデルの進歩とは切り離して考えるべきだとの見方も出た。この点が実際どうなるかは、数か月で分かるかもしれないとしている。

PHP と LiteLLM が示すもの

PHP の件では、4年間存在していたリモートコード実行につながるバグを、OpenAI などの研究者が見つけ、PHP Foundation が調整してパッチを一斉公開した。Florian によれば、一時オフラインになったサイトもあったが、パッチ公開後も大規模な悪用は確認されていないという報告が複数ある。さらに、中小企業では PHP のバージョンが何年も古いままで、他の脆弱性すら悪用されていない例もあるという。

LiteLLM は、複数プロバイダーを1つのエンドポイントで呼べるライブラリで、今週再び侵害を受けた。暫定報告によれば、GitHub に API キーが5か月間コミットされたまま読める状態で、それが悪用されたという。Nathan は、攻撃能力が高まっても、攻撃側の組織の出力が10倍になるわけではないので、ボトルネックは別にあると述べた。一方で防御側は懸念が大きく、Azeem Azhar の「新しいインターネットの初日」という論考を引き、コーディングエージェントによるコード量の急増と未処理の脆弱性の山が、今後数年の過渡期を危うくすると語った。

信頼アクセスと abliterated モデル

Nathan は、自分の「Mythos がオープンウェイトで出ていても問題なかった」という主張に反発があったと明かす。また、トレンドラインが加速を示していたのに、サイバーの学習が足りず織り込めなかったと反省した。二人は、abliterated(安全制限を除去した)モデルを API で提供する事業者を、訴訟リスクの面からも判断が悪いと批判した。防御目的でも、データを API に送るのでは本末転倒だとする。

Florian は、当初は OpenAI や Anthropic のサイバープログラムに入れず、仕方なくオープンモデルを使う人がいたと指摘する。いまは OpenAI の防御向けプログラムは、ID 提出とハードウェアキー運用で比較的容易に入れ、Anthropic も開放を進めていると語った。悪用時に身元を辿れる点も利点としている。Nathan は、こうしたプログラムが脆弱性開示の増加に寄与していると見ており、クローズドモデルのガードレールが破られやすい例もあるため、安全性の議論は一方的でないとした。

Anthropic の採用方針と Muse

Anthropic がジュニア人材を採用しない方針について、Nathan は、社会の移行を準備すると言うなら人材育成を続けるべきで、時間軸が短すぎる文化の表れだと批判した。Florian は、他社には優秀で意欲的な若手を採れる好機になると述べている。

後半では、Florian が米国移住を機に Muse を試した体験を語る。行政手続きに必要な書類を先回りして通知してくれる点や、買い物代行で Stripe のワンタイムカードを使う点を評価した。他方、動作が遅く、ブラウザのクラッシュや一部サイトのブロックがあるともいう。他システムのメモリを移行できる点も利点に挙げた。Florian は、人間が相手になる場面は自分で対応するとし、エージェント宛ての連絡窓口をどう作るかが今後の課題だという話も出た。

まとめ

この回の核心は、ベンチマークの上位と実用の評価が必ずしも一致しないこと、そしてサイバーリスクの議論がオープン対クローズドの単純な図式では語れないことだ。二人は、今後数週間はオープンモデルの公開と脆弱性開示が続くと予想している。日本の読者にとっては、自組織の古いソフトウェアの更新やシークレット管理といった基本対策が、AI 時代にこそ重要になるという示唆がある。モデル選定でも、特定のスコアだけでなく速度、コスト、タスク特性を併せて見る視点が有用だろう。

文字起こし(英語・自動生成)

We are back with another Interconnects podcast. We are with Florian Eval Guy, recently moved to SF. Florian, is Kimi K3.1 Pro, name is a mouthful. Is it going to live up to the benchmark scores, for example, in artificial analysis? Or where is it going to land? In the past, the Kimi models always lived up to the expectations. But this release is kind of weird compared to the others. I think it is also partially because they are becoming more professional, and like the previous model drops were kind of out of nowhere. And this time, which also got some criticism, they launched a bigger social media campaign, which allegedly was involved paying people to post about the model without the closing. I think a lot of companies do this and tell you not to mention it, but it's a mess.

It's bad form. No company should do it. Essentially, one person tweeted a screenshot of the press instructions for Kimmy that said, don't say this is a paid promotion. And to my knowledge, no one has corroborated it after that. And there are right now a few of these model launches, including by American companies that are just very obviously astroturfed we have seen launches where it's like thousands of retweets and few hundreds of likes because it works so well to get the attention and some of them disclose that it is a paid ad while others aren't but in general we have seen the professionalization of model launches over time and pretty quickly A year ago, everyone just dropped the model, then patched VLM afterwards.

So no one was actually able to run any of the open models for a while. Now you get all the inference frameworks on day one. You get all the inference providers on day one, which is also what we see more and more. the model creator has a few weeks of exclusive extras before they release the weights and that's also what's happening with k31 pro i think it's two weeks of exclusive extras before they release the model weights yeah it's weights are set they said the weights would come out by november 4th and like the headline things oh i don't know if i'm real share screen i don't have this set up on this computer but the headline is this like artificial analysis number where it's like ahead of gpt6 astra and then if you look at the kimmy k 3.1 log they have their headline numbers which are really strong and then they also have some numbers later on which seem like it's a bit

more jagged which i think it was like terminal bench science is like 20 points behind gpt6 astra um i think there's a few others like program bench do you know any like do you know do you terminal bench science and program bench like are any of these things that people think are important benchmarks to frontier models or like how do you explain the fact that on artificial analysis the model is top what three four it's like cloud it's like the two latest Claude 5.5 models, Muse Wonderful, and then Kimmy 3.1, which looks crazy. Like, it just looks like totally crazy scores, and I think everybody is still surprised by it. But then there's, like, kind of all these long tail of details that you use to evaluate a model now, and I had posted a thread on Twitter of, like, what are people's impressions, and there's a lot of people that are, like, this seems not great, and then some people that are, like, yeah, it's fine, And it's just like, I don't know.

There's a mixed bag relative to K3, which I think was pretty unanimously, like this feels like a big model and the post-training seemed a little bit like undercooked for that. And it's like maybe this is just like a tiny bit RL fried. We'll see where we land. yeah so for the benchmarks one of the things is that the benchmarks that are right now used by artificial analysts they will post their new version probably very soon after we release it for the podcast I can't tell you the exact date but both of us know but in general the artificial analysis benchmarks are rather short in terms of time horizon, whereas something like program bench is really long and also very explorative. And other benchmarks are telling the model, all right, this is the goal, and I want you

to reach it, whereas program bench is more like, all right, here's what I want, but you need to explore a lot. And I think that might be the reason that we see some differences are that BRL training is still more towards the exploitive side of model training versus the explorative side of you need to find the solution somehow before you actually know what to do. But if you're using a 3 trillion parameter model, I feel like you kind of want it to be pretty robust to exploration. Because I feel like if you're going to want to use a model for, like, pretty known coding tasks, like using a DeepSeek Flash 1017, which is, like, not that far behind on these scores, but it's just going to be way faster. It might not be wildly different on, like, cost per task with the actual token numbers. That's why I think there's, like, pretty reasonable criticism of this Kimmy release is, like, a big model has got to be – it's going to be slower.

it's gotta be like Fable which is just like I still think Fable is really nice if you're doing very blurry things like I revert to it when checking my slides over sometimes where I just feel like it kind of gets me a bit better where Opus is like really really grindy and I think that there's like that's kind of I think the open way models are better in this kind of grindy perspective because you can just get them to be faster and cheaper but I don't know like it is It seems like Kimi is gearing up for this Flash-style release with their naming change. Previous Kimi models were just K2, K2.6, K3, and now this is K3.1 Pro. So a lot of the more company forecasting investment-y side of interest in Twitter was a lot hinges on this for Kimi. Because it's kind of true. Like, I don't know. We're not the inference experts, but, like, serving the model seems like you've got to commit way more resources to serve this $3 trillion versus this $7 billion parameter model.

Like, you're going to need, like, NBL72 racks, I'm guessing, to do it well. Yeah, to fit the model, you need B300s, like one node per model replica, which is kind of awkward, versus other models, which you can even fit on H200s, rather. which are more readily available. And splitting models is always awkward compared to having one model replica per node or like using existing nodes to fit the full voice. So in that regard, yeah, 3 trillion is just out of or just in the range of what you can host somewhat reasonably, but it is kind of annoying compared to all the flash models and all the smaller models where you can use so many of the existing gpus that people have do you think kimmy's shooting itself in the

foot a little bit by saying it's slowing its own cyber capabilities like in the blog post i would say that i can read some of this because it's really good for people to say it's like open weight principles these evaluations frame our open weight release decision first we aim not to release open weights that would extend the absolute frontier of cyber capability k3.1 pros offensive cyber capability is by design below what our pipeline can produce it remains behind that of frontier proprietary models and they go on to say i don't know if the mid-training part is in this but essentially like they've manipulated the mid-training data to downweight cyber capabilities and see that that can remove can last into the post-training like do you think this would reflect upon the other benchmarks that they have and maybe some of this long horizon weakness or do you think that people can actually separate this i think people can very well separate these things um and i talked to a bunch of other people and i think that style of release is really good

you want very broad access to everyone to find all the bugs and to patch all the bugs, which is net positive for the world. And Kimi is saying they still released a capable model for the defensive side, but they don't want to advance the offensive side. And what I've heard from cybersecurity professionals is that exploiting and being able to go through or wreck the whole organization is way harder because you need very long-horrorized capabilities and you need to persist through all the stages that you penetrate. and that's where closed models especially 5, 6, Sol was a model that's not often in this regard are just way, way better than open models

and I think that is important like we want all our code to be secure and that should happen pretty fast but for this you don't need long horizon and you don't need all the CTF-style challenges. So throwing these out of the training mix is a reasonable decision, and it helps them position against the fear-mongering that once an open model with mythos-level capabilities, which we arguably have in some regards, is released, reward will end, which we haven't seen so far, and I don't think will happen in the near future. So open models get way more scrutiny than closed models in this regard. And then positioning themselves as we are the responsible actors is a smart move. Yeah, okay, we can transition into the you can hack everything part of this segment.

There's a lot going on here, and Florian and I are both not cyber experts, but it is worth discussing because I kind of of the opinion that the cyber experts that I read talk about this as an ecosystem perspective and all measurements like vulnerability detection time to exploitation have been on these exponentials before Chat2BT came out and then there wasn't a step change as AI models came out and they focus on this ecosystem perspective but when you come to the AI people which is like our corner of Twitter people love to debate open closed models and mythos and things like this and then the messy middle is like what is the effect of the daybreak programs and mythos and things like this on broader society so i i feel like i'm trying to muddle through this without getting um too stuck into any one point of view but i really don't think it is that much of a open versus closed and a capability model thing and

And I wish I could go relive the mythos moment because my kind of impression was that they made it quickly seem like a cyber weapon. And I think I could go revisit their communications about what they actually said because it might have been more of they were like, this is a step change in cyber. And then the government was very scared of it and took it very, very seriously. And then that kind of pipeline or spiraled into this communications of AI safety community potentially forecasting more problems. And it's like hard to hold people accountable for what the media ecosystem does. But also, like, if you are the most prominent company in the world, you are partially responsible for how all of this works. So that's like I've gotten pushback to like people in the program that like we didn't say that the world would end when Mythos came out. we just said that there'd be a ton of problems and like some ways they are right that there are a ton of vulnerabilities being found but I do distinctly remember the like boy cried wolf vibe

of a lot of the AI safety companies over the last few years when I had this exchange with Dean Ball where I was trying to point this out to him on Twitter and I was like dog like we've been doing this for years like the boy cried wolf is a classic parable for a reason and it seems like a bit of a blind spot and i just i just can't understand it but we're in it and the vulnerabilities are being found in mass and i would say there's a slight uptick in visible hackings it might be that there's more hackings within the twitter community so it's like a lot of cyber people i've talked to use like cyber reported cyber damages which a lot of them are through ransomware as the trend to look at and like historically ai has been attributed to a very very low percentage of cyber damages so i think if like cyber damages does skyrocket with attribution to ai that is a very difficult world but the vulnerability finding is very very unsettling but we don't know exactly what it'll translate into and that's kind of where i think stand and the reason as to like why that

translation might not happen for example i like joshua sax's work a lot and he talks about how the supply chain of cyber hackers is very weak and it's like these people are getting tend to have competition like the population are people that self-select because they cannot get better jobs and this population of people might also not be people that are willing to do cyber attacks that i would describe as like loud and very high damages so i think there's a very high likelihood that nation state actors are using AI to collect information and infiltrate at a large scale. But I don't know, like, it's not clear who the people are in the world that are willing to use AI models to cause mass damage in the physical world. And I don't like that being, like, there's a horrible thing to be like, okay, we're going to figure out whether or not that's true in the next four months, but it literally might be where we're at with the number of vulnerabilities out there.

And I think you've been following the PHP issue, which I don't know if you want to summarize the PHP issue for people and then also some of these things that you've been following in the commentary after that. Yeah, so the PHP issue is basically that four years there was a bug which allows you to, in PHP, to execute code remotely. So anyone can use any PHP website, which are a lot of the websites in the web. WordPress is one of the biggest ecosystems which runs on PHP. and the OpenAI, a patch for planet program together with some other AI security researchers or cyber security researchers have found this bug and then reported it to the PHP Foundation has worked with other actors to patch this and then released the patch all at once because PHP powers so many parts of the web

And it is a really, really strong exploit or a really high risk. A lot of websites even went offline for a while just to patch this, which is the right response. And that obviously, because it was so high profile and people think about Metforce and think about open model releases, it has kicked off a number of tags that now everyone who can run an open model, basically can hack the world. But the interesting thing is that there are numerous reports that mass exploitation hasn't happened and isn't happening yet. Did you see the tweet about the DeepSeek swarm fixing it? I don't know if it's real, but somebody was like, that works out of big, they obviously work at a big cloud company and they're like, we're literally seeing mass

fixing at scale by somebody or DeepSeekSform. Great meme, coin flip on if it's real. But like in general, the expectation of some people seems to be that the second it drops, everyone is able to bytecode and exploit and is able to scan all the websites and do mass damage. And that doesn't seem to have happened, which is great for the current state of the world. And I think we will see similar things in the future. So very quick fixes by responsible actors, which is the vast majority. Like you said, the people who work at cybersecurity are experts at their job. they get those jobs and there is so much money in fixing things like all the cyber security firms anthropic and open ai so all the ai players as well make a lot of money with these things with

these programs um that like single nefarious actors are the minority and nation states i would say are completely out of that question because if you are nation state you have completely different capabilities. You might run completely different models and abuse these things for a long time. So I wouldn't say that it's fair to say now that open models are becoming better at these things that nation states didn't have these capabilities for a while or can train models to advance their own capabilities. But we are basically seeing that the overall dynamics are kind of staying the same but are accelerated by a lot. And the other interesting thing, especially if you think about things like ransomware, is that people still

haven't woken up that they need to patch their systems. Like I've had a few friends who work at very small or medium businesses. And they're like, oh, yeah, that sounds horrible. Oh, let me check my PHP version. And it's so far out of life that they don't get the security patches because they didn't update their PHP versions or their systems for years. So they were vulnerable to a bunch of other security bugs, which still weren't exploited, which is also very interesting. And another thing that plays into the argument that right now the amount of nefarious actors is very small and things can stay accessible for way longer than people think is the LiteLM hack. So LightLM is a software library where you can use one endpoint and then ping every provider,

which basically allows you to save a lot of lines of code. And they got compromised again this week, which, with all the PHP stuff and other security vulnerabilities, just contributed to the impression that everything is insecure. and they did a preliminary report that the reason why they got hacked again is that they had an API key committed to GitHub for five months. So it was accessible in some way or it was readable for five months and like five months later someone exploited that and used that to spread malware. I don't think we're in a world where we're defense dominant, but I don't think that offensive capabilities being higher is necessarily a lot of the bottleneck, which is very messy. But that's probably why it's not changing that much, because yes, the cost and ability to do cyber attacks is going way up,

but the institutions that are doing them, that doesn't necessarily 10x their output in what they're doing. But the defensive side is worrisome, And I think, like, Azim Har had a good piece on Exponential View, which was just, like, this is day zero of the new Internet, and, like, potentially things will never be as secure and open again. Because people are writing exponentially more code with coding agents. Like, there's just so much more code going out there, and I don't think flaws and vulnerabilities work in a way where it's, like, the model writing the code can prevent all the vulnerabilities. because it's a lot of interactions between software and how you stack these things on top of each other. And the models need to be told. Like, I think you need to give them more context. They won't always have. So this is like people's view where it's just kind of like there's going to be way more vulnerabilities going forwards in this transient period of a few years is where we have the backlog. We have like the problem of the backlog and exponentially more code being written.

So it does seem pretty likely that there's just going to be way more vulnerability for the next few years which is not good but it doesn like none of this seems like an open closed model story which is like how do you bisect the timing and the forecasting of these things with the fact that open models are going to keep getting better and that closed models are going to keep getting better while having imperfect safeguards it's like i kind of feel like the communities actually aren't doing a good job of saying how the other one informs them like one person will like some people ignore the cyber community and some people in the cyber community will be like this is on trend and it's like i still don't know how to fully parse it because it's also overwhelming yeah i i would broadly probably agree about that take yeah and i've been getting a lot of pushback for my open weight mythos in april would have been fine take which was essentially do this is like a few weeks ago when i posted this

buried at the end of a cyber article and at that time there was so much fear mongering that like open weight models were going to cause all these problems and cause all these cyber attacks and a lot of people are essentially saying like look we're right there's all these cyber exploits due to open weight models but it's just like getting causality is so hard i think And it would be good to talk to people that are pals with big tech company security leadership and understand, are companies actually deploying open models for defense? I don't think there are that many companies that are going to be proactive on cyber defense. I think it gives me – I get the sense that it's a pretty reactive industry. but at the same time there's these api companies that are serving obliterated models over the api which seems like just asking to get sued by the government i don't i don't know why you would do this like i think the obliterated models for defense is kind of overblown but it is very real

that people want to have models on their own infrastructure so they don't need to send anything over an api so to have an obliterated model that you need to send information over an API in order to secure your systems. I'm like, I think one of the companies has literally obliterated AI and the other one is like Morpheus or something and I think it is a bad judgment call for these companies to host these models at this time. I also think, or it remains to be seen how much the obliteration really helps versus it just being very effective marketing. I think the whole thing has shown one thing, and that might play into your open source mythos would have been fine tape, is that the diffusion isn't happening fast enough. Like people are struggling to get access to, and especially back then, were struggling to get access to the cyber programs from Anthropic and from OpenAI.

So they had to use open models. It is obvious that the closed models are just better at these things, but if you can't get access and get blocked with every request, what should you do? You need to use the less capable open models. And it seems like that has now changed for Anthropic as well. So getting access to the defensive cybersecurity program from OpenAI is rather easy. You submit your ID, you have to secure a system with hardware keys, and then you basically get it. Just for the defensive side for securing your code. And I think that's amazing. If someone was to abuse it, I can just look up who the real person behind that is and can, in the worst case, go after them or talk to law enforcement. and the offensive program is still very hard to get in and from what I've heard is that

Anthropic is also broadening the access now to more and more people and that's just that positive and the thing that will change the landscape because more security researchers and more people being able to sift through so much software and we hold backlog to secure our code is the thing that is needed in the end. I do think that these programs are a big reason why we're seeing so many vulnerability disclosures. Like the PHP disclosure was in the works and people were in the process of fixing it when it got leaked. And I think I would put more likelihood of people using these closed models easily with trusted access programs to do a lot of those. And I think the companies deserve credit for this. And the open weight model stuff is just really messy. So I was like, we're only going to see it when there's a disaster and it's like really hard to see usage. And I still do think if there was a deep seeks forum that hacked an American company, the political fallout would be insane.

And it's maybe like some of the politics of this are just going to be slower due to the midterms coming up, whereas like everybody is focusing on midterms and they're not focusing on AI right now. I wanted to revisit my mythos, open weight mythos would be fine piece. And I think the thing that I didn't do a good job of articulating in it is just like what the trend lines forecast in terms of vulnerabilities as like accelerating and things like this, because those trends lines existed. And I think I could have done more learning about cybersecurity ahead of time to be like those are going to come and to price that in. Or it seems like very, very ecosystem dependent rather than when we get a certain capability diffused widely dependent at this point. And I don't love the balance, but it's like what evidence I'm seeing is looking at. so I do think there's still going to be political challenges ahead for open models even though a lot of the facts don't support the evidence right now

like you can make I made a slide in my talk that was just like screen grabs of closed models hacking companies and stuff and there's so many of them like I think like closed model safety notion is really really suppressed right now with models in training being able to hack people people getting around the safeguards very easily and hacking companies like if you had taken us back a year ago and asked especially people at labs about that they would have been like no that's not going to happen I would think and I don't think that is fully updated across the community very well yeah but one thing that I that I like is that OpenAI and Anthropics seem to have updated their safeguards because they can update them at like moment's notice and it seems like they have rolled out an update to their safeguards that basically blocks any any uh try to get a real exploit for php to shell so if you mention

like all right i want you to look through this code the safeguard will just block you off to stop people that are just trying to get the exploit very easily um in their tracks and i think Like, that is a useful showcase for why safeguards for closed models might work better or are working at all. I hear these things. And I hear things like researchers who are trying to do cyber research that are like, yeah, I haven't been able to use any agents after Opus 4.8 because I get rolled back immediately. And you hear these, but you also do see the news that's like, I used Cloud Code to hack OpenAI. I think there's still a gray area in there, which maybe it's like the least motivated hacker is blocked by the guardrails, which is like the teenager being like, can I steal my friend's parents' money out of their bank account? Like that stuff's getting hacked, which is – or getting stopped, blocked, which is good.

But I do think open models to a large extent also block that type of thing. They're like, no, it's not. I don't know. I have another rant. What do you think about Anthropic saying they're not going to hire junior employees? Well, I mean, that's great for everyone else. So they can hire all the junior employees that have very bright ideas, are very hungry to work. And when we visited China, one of our takeaways was that, yeah, if you just hire all the young PhD students who walk their ass off all the time and are super happy to get hands on a cluster, you catch up really fast, and those people also have very bright ideas. So, yeah, I think. That's pretty funny. My take is, like, Anthropic does all this work to talk about how they are – you want to do all this ambitious stuff to prepare society for the transition

to super powerful AI, and I'm like, the number one thing you need to do is keep training people so that they are fulfilled and have things to do with their life and it's like yeah taking risk on a bunch of junior employees isn't great but i think it's more about the culture of kind of two short timelines in terms of building technology where they're like we just need to build this i don't have time to talk to people is like another kind of red flag on their safety culture of like look like safety is a much broader thing you've got to focus you got to have your chips covering a lot of issues that matter and a lot of these things will come back to bite them i think in the future and we've seen a lot of pushback to the labs and how they communicate things in the past and i think there's just the next brewing issue which is like when there is a job correction or slowing jobs due to ai and the companies they look back six months and they're like anthropic decided not to hire any junior employees six months before a bunch of like news on youth unemployment it's like it's not gonna

look good and I feel like they definitely have the money and so many scientists I know that end up there like like doing this it's like a fun part of the job to have these relationships that you build over time so I don't know I thought it was another sign of strange culture at the labs and they need to touch grass and realize that it's going to take a long time for things to change and I think that RSI has limits Yeah I think like we haven't seen mass job displacements and not even mass job displacements in the software sector like everyone is just hiring more and more because you can do so much more with coding agents and everyone seems to be working more and more so yeah it remains to be seen how fast things diffuse in the real world but yeah again for everyone else it's fine that the juniors that might apply to Elfropig are now looking elsewhere because there's

a lot of talent that is just hungry for the right opportunity yeah I'm very curious to see like what do you think is coming in the next few weeks there's rumors of more open models and we going to be riding out these waves of vulnerability announcements and these like with more sporadic hacks when put in that sleep It's kind of our open AI and prop it going to keep releasing models. It seems like I guess the IPO could potentially be soon. It's just very weird to have all of these happening at the same time. Yeah, I think we will see the trends continue so more disclosures more high or high scale things that everyone needs to patch a lot more open model releases especially from the US which is great for us as we've been following

that for a long time and now we seemingly have a month or two ahead of us where everyone will just drop one open model after another the Chinese players are also gearing up for new model releases which again is just how we operated for a while but I felt like the past month or two have been relatively quiet and it seems like now things will pick up steam by a lot where does Muse fit into this yeah Florian doesn't grocery shop, doesn't order his own food, and has no budget. So now that I move to VS, I can actually use Muse and all the other AI things that are blocked in VU. So it is kind of interesting to get everything at once and all the functionality in my operating

systems. And one of the things I tried very hard to, or I've read a lot on Twitter, so I needed to finally try this, is Muse. Because I could set up OpenClaw, Hermes, like all these things myself, but I didn't want to tinker around with it necessarily. especially because these things need constant updates, and I don't trust myself with setting up the secure infrastructure, especially if we talk about money. And there are a bunch of other alternatives, but I trust Facebook enough because they have so much experience with these things. And as soon as something happens with news, like something gets leaked, their stock would just crater and they would get sued into oblivion. So they have a high risk, which makes things very secure. So I set up Muse. I also set up Dots at the same time

to just play around with them. And I am somewhat annoyed how good Muse is, although it's not the frontierist model, but it is good enough for a lot of things. And it is very helpful with its proactive messaging. Like I have to deregister a lot of things in Germany. I have to sign up for a lot of things in the US, like social security number, bank accounts, all that jazz, which also means I need to have a lot of different papers, different forms. And Muse messages me proactively that, oh, I saw that you have that appointment. You need these forms. you have them probably because you signed up or you have a no one and that form is where you got it that's how you download that form and that's been super super helpful whereas dots is like oh yeah so two days ago

you messaged that guy on slack and I have resolved that two days and it's like yeah so maybe you want to check in again and I'm like no I don't want to and the other nice thing from Muse is I obviously also need to buy a lot of stuff because my apartment is empty and I don't know which websites are useful, which brands in the US are good, so I just ask it, alright, I need to stock my whole kitchen, I need pants and so on so get me those things I give it my credit card and it just runs with it It gets the whole shopping cart going. Not on Amazon, because Amazon Vlogs done. And then I check out the Stripe link, which creates a one-time credit card, which is also amazing. Like, if Muse fucks something up or the shop fucks something up, it's not my credit card. It's a one-time credit card, which doesn't exist after the transaction.

And then I get the things after a few days to my home. And that's been very helpful. the one thing that is annoying is it is kind of slow so if you do time sensitive things it's like just faster to visit the website yourself and also it has some issues with the browser like sometimes its browser crashes and then it has to rebuild everything and because the model is slow you lose like 20 minutes which is fine if you are doing things asynchronously and some websites start to block the data centers of Muse or try to throw things into its way. Captures are not a problem. Like, Muse very happily circumvents any capture that gets thrown into its way. But, yeah, that's been a lot of fun. And the more I trust it and the more context it has, the more useful it becomes. So I am kind of shocked how useful I think it is.

How much do you need to give it to get out? Like, I'm guessing you need to give it email calendar and, like, email that has a whole bunch of this life crap in it, and you just kind of need to let it do shit and see what happens. Yeah, so first is that you can import your memories from any system, which is also, like, everyone tries to lock you into their memory system. and Muse basically circumvents that by giving you a prompt that has the other memory system. So in my case, chat GPT, all right, tell me everything you know about me. Then you get the export from chat GPT and that is then fed into Muse. But yeah, the more things to give it, like I have used iCloud as my map provider for over a decade and Muse and Dots don't have an integration with iCloud so I asked it, alright, can I set it up? And both said no.

But Muse also immediately suggested that, hey, you can just log into a browser and I can monitor that instead, which works. But on the other hand, Muse always asks for permission to access iCloud because it's a sensitive website, which again is great because I trust Facebook to do these things properly. That was kind of annoying. so I set up email forwarding to Gmail and used the connector. And now because I'm buying stuff and I'm telling it stuff, it then gets a bunch of emails it can search through, and it remembers, all right, you bought these things, you have signed up for these things, you have confirmation about these appointments, and then it becomes more and more useful over time. Maybe I'm a boomer, but I feel bad having an AI agent call my prospective new dentist. I mean it cannot call things and I think or the thing I do is as soon as it would interact

with real people like support or whatever I overtake it and I write things myself because I think it's a sign of mutual respect to each other that any human connection is still genuine but like dealing with support forms or other tech bots or all these crappy systems it's like whatever i don't know how to click around these things i i just find if natan does this uh i would rather i would rather if somebody was going to send me an ai written email it to go to an ai before going to me because i now sign up for the pangram thing where you pay 20 a month and it checks every email if it's written by ai and it gives me free reason to just delete more emails which were crap the the most fun part is that there are people that I know closely and I'm like huh you're using AI to write your emails I'm like I thought you've been emailing me for years which is really funny um but it is nice metadata to have and I do I don't know how we get from like is it muse from people just get used to

sending each other's muses things it just seems like a really hard cold start problem to like instead of listing gmail on my website as a scientist like can i risk my agent's contact for somebody to like other agents to find and maybe it's like not even visible but i think that's kind of the thing we have to get to is like how do i set up the front door for agents for all of my web and so on and i guess some of the payment stuff is there i guess it It could be like, pay me a dollar for your agent to go send a message to my Gmail. I'll set that up and see what happens. So it's good that Muse is breaking down these boundaries, but I'm like, I don't know if I need it. Like, I'm busy, and I like when I get to go grocery shopping. And at some point, I will surely dive much more fully in than I'm wearing. I mean, my situation is also kind of unique in respect that I'm in a new country.

I don't know anything about anything. And having AI to help me with those things has saved me so much time and so much annoyances. And I'm very happy about that. And every time I cross-checked things because I found that things are kind of weird, Muse was always spot on. So, yeah, that's been great and really helpful for me. yeah i think for refunds and dealing with crap like i got married and i'm trying to extract the domain from my wedding website to my own to pork bun where i keep my domains and you have to go through the customer service and i think this is the task where i'm going to be like muse you gotta go get me my domain back from this cruddy website that i used so i'm getting closer maybe i'll try that right now. Okay, do you have any final hot takes?

I am going to see you can see everything pretty soon after this. So I'm very excited about this. Nice. I think with regards to hot takes, especially all our cyber security stuff, we are set for a while. Yeah. We shall see. Okay. Godspeed, everybody. I hope you don't get hacked. Keep disclosing your vulnerabilities and whatever you do, don't blame DeepSeek. We'll end on that. Good to see you. Bye.

番組の概要欄(原文)

We — Nathan and Florian — wanted to discuss all the messy trade-offs of a busy week in AI and ask all the pressing questions like: * Why did Kimi K3.1 Pro have a mixed reaction with such incredible benchmarks? Will it be adopted? * Were we wrong about the risks of open-weight models and cybersecurity? * Why do cyber experts discuss recent events so differently than AI experts? * What comes next in the few months? What will change our minds? We will write more about this subject, but wanted to bring you behind the curtain as we aspire to quickly learn more about the cybersecurity industry and trends across the last few years that have been leading us today. We conclude the podcast with some lighter topics, from Muse-maxing to excitement in still hiring junior technical talent. Please send us questions and topics, as we plan to record more of these podcasts going forward. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts. For other Interconnects podcasts, go here. YouTube ↓ Chapters * 00:00 Kimi K3.1 Reaction * 08:15 Kimi’s open-weight cyber principles * 11:23 You can hack everything era * 15:54 PHP2Shell, LiteLLM, and the new internet * 24:00 Abliterated APIs, safeguards, and trusted access * 31:41 Anthropic not hiring juniors employees * 36:16 Florian’s Muse addiction * 45:30 Wrap-up Links we discuss * My thread with Dean Ball about the “boy who cried wolf” story of the frontier labs * Kimi K3.1 Pro announcement blog * Kimi K3.1 Pro on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index * Kimi K3.1 on Artificial Analysis defensive cyber benchmarks * Program Bench * Open-weight Mythos would’ve been fine take * PHP “hasn’t caused a disaster yet” update * Abliteration.ai serving abliterated models API * Morph serving abliterated DeepSeek via API * Joshua Saxe’s Substack on AI and cybersecurity * Azeem Azhar, “The internet’s Wuhan moment” * Anthropic, “How employment is changing at Anthropic” * LiteLLM security incident report Transcript 00:00:00 Nathan Lambert: We are back with another Interconnects podcast. We are with Florian, eval guy, recently moved to SF. Florian, is Kimi K3.1 Pro, name is a mouthful, going to live up to the benchmark scores, for example on Artificial Analysis, or where is it going to land? 00:00:17 Florian Brand: In the past, the Kimi models always lived up to the expectations, but this release is kind of weird compared to the others. I think it is also partially because they are becoming more professional, and the previous model drops were kind of out of nowhere. This time, which also got some criticism, they launched a bigger social media campaign, which allegedly also involved paying people to post about the model without disclosing. 00:00:56 Nathan Lambert: I think a lot of companies do this and tell you not to mention it, but it’s a mess. It’s bad form. No company should do it. Essentially, one person tweeted a screenshot of the press instructions for Kimi that said, “Don’t say this is a paid promotion.” And to my knowledge, no one has corroborated it after that. 00:01:15 Florian Brand: Yeah, and there are right now a few of these model launches, including by American companies, that are just very obviously astroturfed. We have seen launches where it’s thousands of retweets and a few hundred likes, because it works so well to get the attention. Some of them disclose that it is a paid ad while others don’t. But in general, we have seen the professionalization of model launches over time, and pretty quickly. A year ago, everyone just dropped the model, then patched vLLM afterwards, so no one was actually able to run any of the open models for a while. Now you get all the inference frameworks on day one, you get all the inference providers on day one. Or, which is also what we see more and more, the model creator has a few weeks of exclusive access before they release the weights. And that’s also what’s happening with K3.1 Pro. I think it’s two weeks of exclusive access before they release the model weights. 00:02:38 Nathan Lambert: They said the weights would come out by November 4th. And the headline things... I don’t know if I’m going to be able to share screen. I don’t have this set up on this computer. But the headline is this Artificial Analysis number where it’s ahead of GPT-6 Astra. And then if you look at the Kimi K3.1 blog, they have their headline numbers, which are really strong, and then they also have some numbers later on which seem a bit more jagged. I think it was Terminal-Bench Science, which is 20 points behind GPT-6 Astra. I think there were a few others, like ProgramBench. Do you know Terminal-Bench Science and ProgramBench? Are any of these things that people think are important benchmarks for frontier models? Or how do you explain the fact that on Artificial Analysis the model is top, what, three, four? It’s the two latest Claude 5.5 models, Muse Wonder Full, and then Kimi K3.1, which looks crazy. It just looks like totally crazy scores, and I think everybody is still surprised by it. But then there’s this long tail of details that you use to evaluate a model now. I had posted a thread on Twitter of, “What are people’s impressions?” And there’s a lot of people that are like, “This seems not great,” and then some people that are like, “Yeah, it’s fine.” I don’t know, there’s a mixed bag. Relative to K3, which I think was pretty unanimously, this feels like a big model and the post-training seemed a little bit undercooked for that. Maybe this is just a tiny bit RL fried. We’ll see where we land. 00:04:26 Florian Brand: For the benchmarks, one of the things is that the benchmarks that are right now used by Artificial Analysis, they will post their new version probably very soon after we release this podcast. 00:04:43 Nathan Lambert: We can’t tell you the exact date, but both of us know. 00:04:48 Florian Brand: In general, the Artificial Analysis benchmarks are rather short in terms of time horizon, whereas something like ProgramBench is really long and also very explorative. Other benchmarks are telling the model, “All right, this is the goal, and I want you to reach it,” whereas ProgramBench is more like, “All right, here’s what I want, but you need to explore a lot.” And I think that might be the reason that we see some differences: their RL training is still more towards the exploitative side of model training versus the explorative side, where you need to find the solution somehow before you actually know what you’re doing. 00:05:41 Nathan Lambert: But if you’re using a three trillion parameter model, I feel like you kind of want it to be pretty robust at exploration. Because if you’re going to want to use a model for pretty known coding tasks, like using DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017, which is not that far behind on these scores, it’s just going to be way faster. It might not be wildly different on cost per task with the actual token numbers. That’s why I think it’s pretty reasonable criticism of this Kimi release: a big model has got to be... Because it’s going to be slower, it’s got to be like Fable, which is just... I still think Fable is really nice if you’re doing very blurry things. I revert to it when checking my slides over sometimes, where I just feel like it kind of gets me a bit better, where Opus is really, really grindy. I think the open-weight models are better in this kind of grindy perspective, because you can just get them to be faster and cheaper. 00:06:44 Nathan Lambert: It seems like Kimi is gearing up for this Flash-style release with their naming change. Previous Kimi models were just K2, K2.6, K3, and now this is K3.1 Pro. So a lot of the company forecasting, investment-y side of interest on Twitter was, a lot hinges on this for Kimi, because it’s kind of true. We’re not the inference experts, but serving the model seems like you’ve got to commit way more resources to serve this three trillion versus this 700 billion parameter model. You’re going to need NVL72 racks, I’m guessing, to do it well. 00:07:21 Florian Brand: To fit the model, you need B300s, one node per model replica, which is kind of awkward, versus other models which you can even fit on H100s, or H200s rather, which are more readily available. Splitting models is always awkward compared to having one model replica per node, or using existing nodes to fit the full weights. So in that regard, three trillion is just out of, or just in the range of what you can host somewhat reasonably, but it is kind of annoying compared to all the Flash models and all the smaller models, where you can use so many of the existing GPUs that people have. 00:08:15 Nathan Lambert: Do you think Kimi’s shooting itself in the foot a little bit by saying it’s slowing its own cyber capabilities? In the blog post, I can read some of this, because it’s really good for people to say. “Open-weight principles. These evaluations frame our open-weight release decision. First, we aim not to release open weights that would extend the absolute frontier of cyber capability. K3.1 Pro’s offensive cyber capability is, by design, below what our pipeline can produce, and remains behind that of frontier proprietary models.” And they go on to say... I don’t know if the mid-training part is in this, but essentially they manipulated the mid-training data to down-weight cyber capabilities and see that that can last into the post-training. Do you think this would reflect upon the other benchmarks that they have, and maybe some of this long-horizon weakness? Or do you think that people could actually separate this? 00:09:08 Florian Brand: I think people can very well separate these things. I talked to a bunch of other people, and I think that style of release is really good. You want very broad access for everyone to find all the bugs and to patch all the bugs, which is net positive for the world. And Kimi saying they still release the capable model for the defensive side, but they don’t want to advance the offensive side. What I’ve heard from cybersecurity professionals is that exploiting and being able to go through or wreck a whole organization is way harder, because you need very long-horizon capabilities, and you need to persist through all the stages that you penetrate. That’s where closed models, especially GPT-5.6 Sol, a model that’s named often in this regard, are just way, way better than open models. And I think that is important. We want all our code to be secure, and that should happen pretty fast. But for this, you don’t need long horizon. You don’t need all the CTF-style challenges. So throwing these out of the training mix is a reasonable decision, and it helps them position against the fearmongering that once an open model with Mythos-level capabilities, which we arguably have in some regards, is released, the world will end. Which we haven’t seen so far, and I don’t think will happen in the near future. So open models get way more scrutiny than closed models in this regard, and them positioning themselves as, “We are the responsible actors,” is a smart move. 00:11:23 Nathan Lambert: Okay, we can transition into the “you can hack everything” part of this segment. There’s a lot going on here, and Florian and I are both not cyber experts, but it is worth discussing, because I’m kind of of the opinion that the cyber experts that I read talk about this from an ecosystem perspective. All measurements like vulnerability detection, time to exploitation, have been on these exponentials before ChatGPT came out, and there wasn’t a step change as AI models came out, and they focus on this ecosystem perspective. But when you come to the AI people, which is our corner of Twitter, people love to debate open versus closed models and Mythos and things like this. And then the messy middle is, what is the effect of the Daybreak programs and Mythos and things like this on broader society? I feel like I’m trying to muddle through this without getting too stuck into any one point of view. But I really don’t think it is that much of an open versus closed and a capability model thing. 00:12:33 Nathan Lambert: I wish I could go relive the Mythos moment, because my impression was that they made it quickly seem like a cyber weapon. I can go revisit their communications about what they actually said, because it might have been more that they were like, “This is a step change in cyber,” and then the government was very scared of it and took it very, very seriously, and then that pipeline spiraled into this communications of the AI safety community potentially forecasting more problems. It’s hard to hold people accountable for what the media ecosystem does, but also if you are the most prominent company in the world, you are partially responsible for how all of this works. So I’ve gotten pushback from people in the program that are like, “We didn’t say that the world would end when Mythos came out. We just said that there’d be a ton of problems.” And in some ways they are right that there are a ton of vulnerabilities being found. But I do distinctly remember the boy-who-cried-wolf vibe of a lot of the AI safety companies over the last few years. I had this exchange with Dean Ball where I was trying to point this out to him on Twitter, and I was like, “Dog, we’ve been doing this for years.” The boy who cried wolf is a classic parable for a reason, and it seems like a bit of a blind spot, and I just can’t understand it. 00:13:50 Nathan Lambert: But we’re in it, and the vulnerabilities are being found en masse, and I would say there’s a slight uptick in visible hackings. It might be that there’s more hackings within the Twitter community. A lot of cyber people I’ve talked to use reported cyber damages, which a lot of them are through ransomware, as the trend to look at. Historically, AI has been attributed to a very, very low percentage of cyber damages. So if cyber damages do skyrocket with attribution to AI, that is a very difficult world. But the vulnerability finding is very, very unsettling, but we don’t know exactly what it’ll translate into. That’s where I stand, and the reason as to why that translation might not happen. For example, I like Joshua Saxe’s work a lot, and he talks about how the supply chain of cyber hackers is very weak. These people tend to have competition. The population are people that self-select because they cannot get better jobs, and this population of people might also not be people that are willing to do cyber attacks that I would describe as loud and very high damage. So I think there’s a very high likelihood that nation-state actors are using AI to collect information and infiltrate at a large scale. But it’s not clear who the people are in the world that are willing to use AI models to cause mass damage in the physical world. And I don’t like that being... That’s a horrible thing to be like, “Okay, we’re going to figure out whether or not that’s true in the next four months,” but it literally might be where we’re at with the number of vulnerabilities out there. And I think you’ve been following the PHP issue, which I don’t know if you want to summarize for people, and then also some of these things that you’ve been following in the commentary after that. 00:15:54 Florian Brand: So the PHP issue is basically that for years there was a bug which allows you, in PHP, to execute code remotely. So anyone can use any PHP website, which are a lot of the websites on the web. WordPress is one of the biggest ecosystems which runs on PHP. And the OpenAI Patch the Planet program, together with some other AI security researchers or cybersecurity researchers, found this bug and then reported it to the PHP Foundation, worked with other actors to patch this, and then released the patch all at once. Because PHP powers so many parts of the web, and it is a really, really strong exploit, really high risk, a lot of websites even went offline for a while just to patch this, which is the right response. And obviously because it was so high profile, and people think about Mythos and think about open model releases, that has kicked off a number of takes that now everyone who can run an open model basically can hack the world. But the interesting thing is that there are numerous reports that the mass exploitation hasn’t happened and isn’t happening yet. 00:17:37 Nathan Lambert: Wait, did you see the tweet about the DeepSeek swarm fixing it? 00:17:40 Florian Brand: Yeah. 00:17:42 Nathan Lambert: I don’t know if it’s real, but somebody that works at a big cloud company was like, “We’re literally seeing mass fixing at scale by somebody, or a DeepSeek swarm.” Great meme. Coin flip on if it’s real. 00:17:59 Florian Brand: But in general, the expectation of some people seems to be that the second it drops, everyone is able to write code and exploit and is able to scan all the websites and do mass damage, and that doesn’t seem to have happened, which is great for the current state of the world. And I think we will see similar things in the future, so very quick fixes by responsible actors, which is the vast majority. Like you have said, the people who work in cybersecurity are experts at their job. They get those jobs, and there is so much money in fixing things. All the cybersecurity firms, Anthropic and OpenAI, all the AI players as well make a lot of money with these programs, so single nefarious actors are the minority. And nation states, I would say, are completely out of that question, because if you are a nation state, you have completely different capabilities. You might run completely different models and abuse these things for a long time. So I wouldn’t say it’s fair to say that now that open models are becoming better at these things, nation states didn’t have these capabilities for a while, or can’t train models to advance their own capabilities. We are basically seeing that the overall dynamics are staying the same, but are accelerated by a lot. 00:19:49 Florian Brand: The other interesting thing, especially if you think about things like ransomware, is that people still haven’t woken up that they need to patch their systems. I’ve had a few friends who work at very small or medium businesses, and they are like, “Oh, yeah, that sounds horrible. Let me check my PHP version.” And it is so far out of life that they don’t get the security patches, because they didn’t update their PHP versions or their systems for years. So they are vulnerable to a bunch of other security bugs, which still weren’t exploited, which is also very interesting. Another thing that plays into the argument that right now the amount of nefarious actors is very small, and things can stay accessible for way longer than people think, is the LiteLLM hack. LiteLLM is a software library where you can use one endpoint and then ping every provider, which basically allows you to save a lot of lines of code. And they got compromised again this week, which, with all the PHP stuff and other security vulnerabilities, just contributed to the impression that everything is insecure. They did a preliminary report that the reason why they got hacked again is that they had an API key committed to GitHub for five months. So it was accessible in some way, or it was readable for five months, and five months later, someone exploited that and used that to spread malware. 00:21:44 Nathan Lambert: I don’t think we’re in a world where we’re defense dominant, but I don’t think that offensive capabilities being higher is necessarily a lot of the bottleneck, which is very messy. But that’s probably why it’s not changing that much, because yes, the cost and ability to do cyberattacks is going way up, but the institutions that are doing them, that doesn’t necessarily 10X their output in what they’re doing. But the defensive side is worrisome. Azeem Azhar had a good piece on Exponential View, which was just, this is day zero of the new internet, and potentially things will never be as secure and open again, because people are writing exponentially more code with coding agents. There’s just so much more code going out there, and I don’t think flaws and vulnerabilities work in a way where the model writing the code can prevent all the vulnerabilities, because it’s a lot of interactions between software and how you stack these things on top of each other, and I think you need to give the models more context they won’t always have. So this is people’s view, where there’s going to be way more vulnerabilities going forwards, and this transient period of a few years is where we have the backlog. We have the problem of the backlog and exponentially more code being written, so it does seem pretty likely that there’s just going to be way more vulnerability for the next few years, which is not good. 00:23:17 Nathan Lambert: But none of this seems like an open-closed model story. How do you bisect the timing and the forecasting of these things with the fact that open models are going to keep getting better, and that closed models are going to keep getting better while having imperfect safeguards? I kind of feel like the communities actually aren’t doing a good job of saying how the other one informs them. Some people ignore the cyber community, and some people in the cyber community will be like, “This is on trend.” I still don’t know how to fully parse it, because it’s all so overwhelming. 00:23:54 Florian Brand: I would broadly agree with that take. 00:24:00 Nathan Lambert: I’ve been getting a lot of pushback for my open-weight Mythos in April would have been fine take, which was essentially... This is a few weeks ago when I posted this, buried at the end of a cyber article, and at that time there was so much fearmongering that open-weight models were going to cause all these problems and cause all these cyberattacks. A lot of people are essentially saying, “Look, we were right. There’s all these cyber exploits due to open-weight models.” But causality is so hard. I think it would be good to talk to people that are pals with big tech company security leadership and understand, are companies actually deploying open models for defense? I don’t think there are that many companies that are going to be proactive on cyber defense. I get the sense that it’s a pretty reactive industry. So I don’t know. But at the same time, there are these API companies that are serving abliterated models over the API, which seems like just asking to get sued by the government. I don’t know why you would do this. I think the abliterated models for defense is kind of overblown, but it is very real that people want to have models on their own infrastructure so they don’t need to send anything over an API. So to have an abliterated model that you need to send information to over an API in order to secure your systems... I think one of the companies is literally Abliteration.ai, and the other one is Morph. I think it is a bad judgment call for these companies to host these models at this time. 00:25:43 Florian Brand: I also think it remains to be seen how much the abliteration really helps versus it just being very effective marketing. I think the whole thing has shown one thing, and that might play into your open-source Mythos would have been fine take, which is that the diffusion isn’t happening fast enough. People are struggling to get access to, and especially back then were struggling to get access to, the cyber programs from Anthropic and from OpenAI. So they had to use open models. It is obvious that the closed models are just better at these things, but if you can’t get access and get blocked with every request, what should you do? You need to use the less capable open models. And it seems like that has now changed for Anthropic as well. Getting access to the defensive cybersecurity program from OpenAI is rather easy. You submit your ID, you have to secure a system with hardware keys, and then you basically get it, just for the defensive side, for securing your code. And I think that’s amazing. If someone was to abuse it, OpenAI can just look up who the real person behind that is and, in the worst case, go after them or talk to law enforcement. The offensive program is still very hard to get into. And from what I’ve heard, Anthropic is also broadening the access now to more and more people. That’s just positive, and the thing that will change the landscape, because more security researchers and more people being able to sift through so much software and the whole backlog to secure our code is the thing that is needed in the end. 00:27:49 Nathan Lambert: I do think that these programs are a big reason why we’re seeing so many vulnerability disclosures. The PHP disclosure was in the works, and people were in the process of fixing it when it got leaked. I would put more likelihood on people using these closed models easily with trusted access programs to do a lot of those, and I think that companies deserve credit for this. The open-weight model stuff is just really messy. We’re only going to see it when there’s a disaster, and it’s really hard to see usage. I still do think if there was a DeepSeek swarm that hacked an American company, the political fallout would be insane. Maybe some of the politics of this are just going to be slower due to the midterms coming up, where everybody’s focusing on midterms and they’re not focusing on AI right now. I wanted to revisit my open-weight Mythos would be fine piece, and I think the thing that I didn’t do a good job of articulating in it is just what the trend lines forecast in terms of vulnerabilities accelerating, because those trend lines existed. I could have done more learning about cybersecurity ahead of time to be like, “Those are going to come,” and to price that in. It seems very, very ecosystem dependent, rather than dependent on when we get a certain capability diffused widely, at this point. I don’t love the balance, but that’s what the evidence I’m seeing is looking at. So I do think there’s still going to be political challenges ahead for open models, even though a lot of the facts don’t support the evidence right now. 00:29:28 Nathan Lambert: I made a slide in my talk that was just screen grabs of closed models hacking companies and stuff, and there’s so many of them. I think the closed model safety notion is really, really suppressed right now, with models in training being able to hack people, people getting around the safeguards very easily and hacking companies. If you had taken us back a year ago and asked especially people at labs about that, they would have been like, “No, that’s not going to happen,” I would think. And I don’t think that is fully updated across the community very well. 00:30:07 Florian Brand: One thing that I like is that OpenAI and Anthropic seem to have updated their safeguards, because they can update them at a moment’s notice. It seems like they have rolled out an update to their safeguards that basically blocks any try to get the real exploit for PHP2Shell. If you mention, “All right, I want you to look through this code,” the safeguard will just block you off, to stop people that are just trying to get the exploit very easily in their tracks. I think that is a useful showcase for why safeguards for closed models might work better, or are working at all. 00:30:56 Nathan Lambert: I hear these things, and I hear things like researchers who are trying to do cyber research that are like, “Yeah, I haven’t been able to use any agents after Opus 4.8, because I get rolled back immediately.” You hear these, but you also do see the news that’s like, “I used Claude Code to hack OpenAI.” I think there’s still a gray area in there, where maybe the least motivated hacker is blocked by the guardrails, which is the teenager being like, “Can I steal my friend’s parents’ money out of their bank account?” That stuff’s getting stopped, blocked, which is good. But I do think open models, to a large extent, also block that type of thing. 00:31:41 Nathan Lambert: I have another rant. What do you think about Anthropic saying they’re not going to hire junior employees? 00:31:48 Florian Brand: Well, I mean, that’s great for everyone else. So they can hire all the junior employees that have very bright ideas and are very hungry to work. When we visited China, one of our takeaways was that if you just hire all the young PhD students who work their ass off all the time and are super happy to get hands on a cluster, you catch up really fast, and those people also have very bright ideas. So yeah, it’s pretty good for everyone else. 00:32:24 Nathan Lambert: That’s pretty funny. My take is, Anthropic does all this work to talk about how they want to do all this ambitious stuff to prepare society for the transition to super powerful AI, and I’m like, the number one thing you need to do is keep training people so that they are fulfilled and have things to do with their life. Yeah, taking risk on a bunch of junior employees isn’t great, but I think it’s more about the culture of too-short timelines in terms of building technology, where they’re like, “We just need to build this. I don’t have time to talk to people.” It’s another red flag on their safety culture: safety is a much broader thing. You’ve got to have your chips covering a lot of issues that matter, and a lot of these things will come back to bite them, I think, in the future. We’ve seen a lot of pushback to the labs and how they communicate things in the past, and I think this is just the next brewing issue, which is when there is a job correction or slowing jobs due to AI, and the companies, they look back six months and they’re like, “Anthropic decided not to hire any junior employees six months before a bunch of news on youth unemployment.” It’s not going to look good, and I feel like they definitely have the money. So many scientists I know that end up there like doing this. It’s a fun part of the job to have these relationships that you build over time. So I thought it was another sign of strange culture at the labs, and they need to touch grass and realize that it’s going to take a long time for things to change, and I think that RSI has limits. 00:34:05 Florian Brand: I think we haven’t seen mass job displacements, and not even mass job displacements in the software sector. Everyone is just hiring more and more, because you can do so much more with coding agents, and everyone seems to be working more and more. So it remains to be seen how fast things diffuse in the real world. But again, for everyone else, it’s fine that the juniors that might apply to Anthropic are now looking elsewhere, because there’s a lot of talent that is just hungry for the right opportunity. 00:34:50 Nathan Lambert: Very curious to see, what do you think is coming in the next few weeks? There’s rumors of more open models, and we’re going to be riding out these waves of vulnerability announcements, with more sporadic hacks. Are OpenAI and Anthropic going to keep releasing models? I guess the IPO could potentially be soon. It’s just very weird to have all of these happening at the same time. 00:35:23 Florian Brand: I think we will see the trends continue, so more disclosures, more high-scale things that everyone needs to patch. A lot more open model releases, especially from the US, which is great for us. We’ve been following that for a long time, and now we seemingly have a month or two ahead of us where everyone will just drop one open model after another. The Chinese players are also gearing up for new model releases, which again is just how we operated for a while, but I felt like the past month or two have been relatively quiet, and it seems like now things will pick up steam by a lot. 00:36:16 Nathan Lambert: Where does Muse fit into this? Florian doesn’t grocery shop, doesn’t order his own food, and has no budget. 00:36:29 Florian Brand: So now that I moved to the US, I can actually use Muse and all the other AI things that are blocked in the EU, so it is kind of interesting to get everything at once and all the functionality in my operating systems. One of the things I tried very hard to... I’ve read a lot on Twitter, so I needed to finally try this, is Muse. I could set up OpenClaw, Hermes, all these things myself, but I didn’t want to tinker around with it necessarily, especially because these things need constant updates, and I don’t trust myself with setting up the secure infrastructure, especially if we talk about money. There are a bunch of other alternatives, but I trust Facebook enough because they have so much experience with these things, and as soon as something happens with Muse, like something gets leaked, their stock would just crater and they would get sued into oblivion. So they have a higher risk, which makes things very secure. So I set up Muse. I also set up Dots at the same time, to just play around with them. 00:37:53 Florian Brand: I am somewhat annoyed how good Muse is. Although it’s not the most frontier model, it is good enough for a lot of things, and it is very helpful with its proactive messaging. I have to deregister a lot of things in Germany. I have to sign up for a lot of things in the US, like Social Security number, bank accounts, all that jazz, which also means I need to have a lot of different papers, different forms. Muse messages me proactively with, “Oh, I saw that you have that appointment. You need these forms. You probably have them because you have an O-1, and that form is where you got it. That’s how you download that form.” That’s been super, super helpful, whereas Dots is like, “Oh, yeah, so two days ago you messaged that guy on Slack, and I have resolved that two days ago. So maybe you want to check in again.” And I’m like, “No, I don’t want to.” The other nice thing from Muse is, I obviously also need to buy a lot of stuff because my apartment is empty, and I don’t know which websites are useful, which brands in the US are good. So I just ask it, “All right, I need to stock my whole kitchen. I need pants and so on, so get me those things.” I gave it my credit card, and it just runs with it. 00:39:29 Florian Brand: It gets the whole shopping cart going, not on Amazon because Amazon blocks them, and then I check out with a Stripe link, which creates a one-time credit card, which is also amazing. If Muse f***s something up or the shop f***s something up, it’s not my credit card. It’s a one-time credit card which doesn’t exist after the transaction. Then I get the things after a few days to my home, and that’s been very helpful. One thing that is annoying is it is kind of slow, so if you do time-sensitive things, it’s just faster to visit a website yourself. And also, it has some issues with the browser. Sometimes its browser crashes, and then it has to rebuild everything, and because the model is slow, you lose 20 minutes, which is fine if you are doing things asynchronously. Some websites start to block the data centers of Muse or try to throw things in its way. CAPTCHAs are not a problem. Muse very happily circumvents any CAPTCHA it gets thrown in its way. But that’s been a lot of fun, and the more I trust it and the more context it has, the more useful it becomes. So I am kind of shocked how useful I think it is. 00:40:54 Nathan Lambert: How much do you need to give it to get out? I’m guessing you need to give it email, calendar, and email that has a whole bunch of this life crap in it, and you just kind of need to let it do s**t and see what happens. 00:41:08 Florian Brand: First is that you can import your memories from any system. Everyone tries to lock you into their memory system, and Muse basically circumvents that by giving you a prompt that has the other memory system, so in my case ChatGPT: “All right, tell me everything you know about me.” Then you get the export from ChatGPT, and that is then fed into Muse. But the more things you give it... I have used iCloud as my mail provider for over a decade, and Muse and Dots don’t have an integration with iCloud, so I asked, “All right, can I set it up?” Both said no, but Muse also immediately suggested, “Hey, you can just log into a browser, and I can monitor that instead,” which works. But on the other hand, Muse always asks for permission to access iCloud because it’s a sensitive website, which, again, is great, because I trust Facebook to do these things properly. It was kind of annoying, so I set up email forwarding to Gmail and used the connector. And now, because I’m buying stuff and I’m telling it stuff, it gets a bunch of emails it can search through, and it remembers, “All right, you bought these things. You have signed up for these things. You have confirmation about these appointments.” And then it becomes more and more useful over time. 00:42:37 Nathan Lambert: Maybe I’m a boomer, but I feel bad having an AI agent call my prospective new dentist. 00:42:47 Florian Brand: It cannot call things. And the thing I do is, as soon as it would interact with real people, like support or whatever, I take over and I write things myself, because I think it’s a sign of mutual respect to each other that any human connection is still genuine. But dealing with support forms or other chatbots or all these crappy systems, whatever. I don’t want to click around these things. I just find if an agent does this, I want to save time. 00:43:24 Nathan Lambert: I would rather, if somebody was going to send me an AI-written email, it go to an AI before going to me, because I now signed up for the Pangram thing where you pay $20 a month and it checks every email if it’s written by AI. It gives me free reason to just delete more emails which were crap. The most fun part is that there are people that I know closely, and I’m like, “Huh, you’re using AI to write your emails? I thought you’ve been emailing me for years,” which is really funny. But it is nice metadata to have. I don’t know how we get from... Is it Muse, from people just getting used to sending each other’s Muses things? It just seems like a really hard cold start problem. Instead of listing Gmail on my website as a scientist, can I list my agent’s contact for other agents to find? Maybe it’s not even visible, but I think that’s the thing we have to get to: how do I set up the front door for agents for all of my web and so on? I guess some of the payment stuff is there. It could be like, “Pay me a dollar for your agent to go send a message to my Gmail,” and set that up and see what happens. So it’s good that Muse is breaking down these boundaries, but I’m like, “I don’t know if I need it.” I’m busy, and I like when I get to go grocery shopping. At some point, I will surely dive much more fully into what I’m wearing. 00:44:58 Florian Brand: My situation is also kind of unique in the respect that I’m in a new country. I don’t know anything about anything. And having AI to help me with those things has saved me so much time and so many annoyances that I’m very happy about that. Every time I cross-checked things, because I found that things are kind of weird, Muse was always spot on. So that’s been great and really helpful for me. 00:45:30 Nathan Lambert: I think for refunds and dealing with crap... I got married, and I’m trying to extract a domain from my wedding website to Porkbun, where I keep my domains, and you have to go through customer service. I think this is the task where I’m going to be like, “Muse, you’ve got to go get me my domain back from this cruddy website that I used.” So I’m getting closer. Maybe I’ll try that right now. Do you have any final hot takes? I am going to see You Can See Everything pretty soon after this, so I’m pretty excited about this. 00:46:11 Florian Brand: Nice. I think with regards to hot takes, especially all our cybersecurity stuff, we are set for a while. 00:46:23 Nathan Lambert: We shall see. Okay. Godspeed, everybody. I hope you don’t get hacked. Keep disclosing your vulnerabilities, and whatever you do, don’t blame DeepSeek. We’ll end on that. Good to see you. 00:46:40 Florian Brand: Bye. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.interconnects.ai/subscribe

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Podcast: Kimi K3.1 Pro, the new cyber reality, and Muse musings
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