The Cost of Costless War: How AI Could Increase the Likelihood of Conflict

This article explores how the removal of human soldiers from warfare through AI could make war more likely by removing the political and economic constraints that have historically deterred large-scale conflict.

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The article argues that the removal of human soldiers from warfare through AI could make war more likely by removing the political and economic constraints that have historically deterred large-scale conflict. Politically, the democratic brake on war is released when the human cost of conflict is removed, as there are no body bags or grieving families to sway public opinion. Economically, the destruction of machines rather than human capital makes reconstruction easier and reduces the practical constraints on war. Additionally, AI changes the strategic landscape, as territory becomes less valuable and resources like computing power become the new flashpoints. The speed of AI decision-making also poses a risk, as it could outpace human deliberation and lead to escalation before humans can intervene. Overall, the article suggests that while AI may remove the human cost of war, it does not remove the underlying incentives and could ultimately make conflict more likely.