Are We in an AI Bubble? A Tech Professional's Perspective

The article discusses the current AI landscape, with unprecedented investment and hype, and whether it resembles a bubble similar to past tech booms. It examines the arguments for why this time might be different, as well as the historical patterns that suggest caution.

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The article explores the current AI landscape, where companies are pouring unprecedented capital into AI infrastructure, with spending levels that rival entire national budgets. It examines the arguments for why this time might be different, such as the existence of real products with real users (like ChatGPT), immediate revenue for companies like Anthropic, and the involvement of proven leaders like Microsoft, Google, and Meta. However, the author also recognizes familiar patterns from past tech booms, such as the cycles of revolution, early fortunes, FOMO-driven investment, overbuilding, and eventual crashes. The article also provides a technical reality check, acknowledging that large language models (LLMs) are genuinely transformative and that technologies like coding assistants are already replacing significant developer hours, while also highlighting the many unknowns, such as who the ultimate winners will be, whether first-movers can maintain advantages, and whether AI services will become commoditized.